Technology advances that have allowed electric vehicle battery makers to increase energy density, combined with a drop in green metal prices, will push battery prices lower than previously expected, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
There are two main drivers. One is technological innovation. We're seeing multiple new battery products that have been launched that feature about 30% higher energy density and lower cost. The second driver is a continued downturn in battery metal prices. That includes lithium and cobalt, and nearly 60% of the cost of batteries is from metals.
“The reduction in battery costs could lead to more competitive EV pricing, more extensive consumer adoption, and further growth in the total addressable markets for EVs and batteries,” says Bhandari.
Our researchers forecast that average battery prices could fall towards $80/kWh by 2026, amounting to a drop of almost 50% from 2023, a level at which battery electric vehicles would achieve ownership cost parity with gasoline-fueled cars in the US on an unsubsidized basis. Source: Company data, Wood Mackenzie, SNE Research, Goldman Sachs Research
Global average prices for EV batteries have already seen a decline, falling from $153 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) in 2020 to $149 in 2023. This year, prices are expected to drop further to $111 per kWh, and by 2026, they are projected to reach just $80.
Battery pack prices are now expected to fall by an average of 11% per year from 2023 to 2030, writes Nikhil Bhandari, co-head of Goldman Sachs Research’s Asia-Pacific Natural Resources and Clean Energy Research, in the team’s report.
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